Hindsight is a wonderful thing, and after rugby each world cup, New Zealand has looked back and found the reasons why the All Blacks lost. In 1991 we were too old, in 1999 we had Christian Cullen out of place at centre and a leader (Taine Randall) that did not have the respect of all his team mates.
Most recently, in 2003 we lost because we had no adequate replacement for Tana Umaga and were over confident to boot.
Of course none of these were mentioned as major concerns before we lost.
Well, what if we lose the 2007 rugby world cup?
When we look back at this tournament, what will the media and the arm chair critics decide was our downfall?
I was thinking about this the other day - if we lose, what would be the reasons why. The answer and topic of this post is below.
Byron Kelleher
Poor old Byron Kelleher has been in two rugby world cup semi finals, and emerged a loser both times. After being in the All Blacks for 10 years I’d argue he’s only now the number one half back. Remember the ‘four more years’ sledge? That was George Gregan, giving it to Byron in no uncertain terms.
Well the four years is up now, but it’s time to get someone who won’t have the lingering taste of two semi final defeats to contend with. Mentally, Byron Kelleher has more baggage than Auckland Airport - and that’s where we should have left him.
Our midfield
One of the downsides of rotation is that we don’t have a proven and settled combination in our midfield. When the All Blacks lost to Australia in Melbourne this year Stirling Morlock alluded to the fact that the Wallabies back line is far more stable that ours.
Mortlock sees the opposing midfield, where McAlister is paired with Toeava for just the second consecutive week, as evidence of how the All Blacks backs are underdone.
“No doubt a fair impact on our team is the fact we’ve had pretty solid combinations throughout the Tri-Nations,” Mortlock said.
In the same article Keven Mealamu (on stable selection) says
“You can certainly see the benefits, especially in the toughest times of the game, later in the game. They seem to bind in really well,”
So, who will make up our midfield in a world cup semi final? It will come down to Luke Mcallister, Conrad Smith, Mils Muliana, Isaia Toeava and Aaron Mauger. That’s a total of 5 players, and 10 possible midfield pairings. Can you remember which combinations played in the last Tri Nations? I can’t, cos they keep on changing.
All are good players, but none of them is in the same league as Stirling Mortlock. If the number one pairing has not had enough opportunity to ‘gel’ then Mortlock or someone else will expose them.
Crap European Teams
Only two games of significance will be played at the rugby world cup - the semi final and the final (assuming we get there). So leading into the absolute two biggest games of the last 4 years our preparation involves playing Romania and Portugal and Italy. And don’t think that a quarter final will provide us a tough encounter because it won’t. We’ll steam roll the opposition in that game as well.
Sure, we’ll break some records, but what would have been ideal is if we were in the ‘Pool of Death’ (of course all world cups have em) and actually played some tough games.
The Lineouts
Everyone knows that in the post Sean Fitzpatrick era our lineout has been just like David Bain’s prosecuting officers - unstable and unreliable and totally crooked. Nuff said really - our line out sucks and you don’t need me write an essay about this.
So there you have it - the reasons why we will lose this world cup. Agreed?
15 comments ↓
Maybe they lost because I didn’t give a **** whether they win or lose and wasn’t watching them when they did their thing.
Yes, well said, we have all been well and truly burned by our last 4 failures in World Cup tournaments and the pessimistic undertones are not without reason once again. It would take an extremely bold supporter to go against this tide of pessimism and state that we can categorically win it, even writing this statement brings to the forefront of the mind the four previous tournaments where we have been knocked out as perceived favourites.
In a tournament such as this where a team has to win 6 straight games you can be undone on the day by a freakish performance aka France 1999, and caution prevails. However, without question we cannot be more prepared for this tournament, and the Cup is there for the taking more than ever before.
Sure we like to believe we have had a divine right to the cup each time in the 91,95,99 and 03 campaigns, but a look at the cold hard facts shows that in reality this was misguided optimism (95 excepted) - in 91 we were an aging team who even Fitzpatrick has said “were a bunch of arrogant arseholes”, in 95 we had a great team but were not initial favourites (and undone by possible outside factors), in 1999 we had had a terrible season the year before yet our team was still far too complacent which was seized upon by the French in that semi, and in 03 we were a one trick pony, whose basic game plan was easily dismantled by an intelligent Wallaby team.
This time we are actually entering the tournament with the best record in the build up for the first time, and are certifiably and quite rightly the outright favourites. We have swept everything before us the last 4 years since the 2003 World Cup, winning 44 out of 48 tests - a stunning record.
Sure there are some slight weaknesses and conundrums that are not fully solved - notably as you pointed out the midfield combinations, lineouts and halfback, but our 2nd XV has beaten every Northern Hemisphere team in the last two years, and the depth Henry has created is the most potent and likely reason we can come out on top. This year we had probably our toughest single test of the last 4 years when playing South Africa against a ferocious Bok team backed up by a similarly passionate partisan crowd.
Down 11 points with 20 minutes to go and with the Boks throwing their bodies around like battering rams, Henry played our trump card, our bench - the culmination of 4 years of tinkering and rotation policy - unleashing the not inconsiderable talents of McDonald and Mealamu, and within 5 or so minutes we had hit the lead. It was there and then I think we unlocked the secret to winning the cup.
We are the only team to truly embrace the concept that rugby is now a 22 man game, and have left the other teams for dead in this respect. We have encountered every conceivable game plan in the build up, low scoring games, come from behind wins, wins overseas, in the wet, against spoiling opposition, we’ve played a myriad of combinations in all situations thus there is nothing this time that can suprise us. A game of the magnitude of France in 1999 just won’t happen this time, we are much more level headed, much more disciplined and less inclinded to panic.
In my opinion, there is only one game we need to win to finally exorcise our demons. The looming semi final against Australia. This is the only team we fear - we have the measure of the French and the Boks - and if we meet either of them in the final we have the mental game to beat them. However this is not the case with the Wallabies. We clearly have the better team, our forward pack is a well oiled powerhouse of a machine, the front row as stable a platform as we’ve ever had compared to the shifty Aussie pack.
But the Aussies know they can beat us, and in a Rumsfeldian way they know that we know this. They showed this in the Tri Nations this year, when we were slightly off our game in Melbourne and Mortlock took advantage of our midfield uncertainty, but the game should have been sealed up by then. If Rodney had taken the pass in the first half the game would have been sewn up there and then. But they stayed within touching distance and saw us slightly panic as our weary legs and mind from the week before showed.
But there is no chance of that happening in France. We just want it too much, more than any other team put together, and I think this is the reason that this time it within our grasp. We have the team, we have the passion, and it will take a superhuman performance by any of the challengers to put us out. France would be a test of unimaginable proportions at their home ground, but that advantage only counts for so much. We have absolutely no fear of them this time. Yes, we could be undone, it’s sport, it throws up the most unlikely of scenarios, but I just can’t see it….not this time….
Knowlsie, that’s not a comment that’s an essay! But cheers for the insights.
Look, I, like you actually think we will win it this time. I think Graham Henry and co are too clever not to learn from the past and I think they have been planning for this for since they started their regime.
My post’s title was maybe a bit dramatic - but the fact remains that if we do lose, our country will start asking questions why.
As an aside, I should have added that Rodney is maybe going to be a weak link for us. Remember England in 2003 (in wgtn I think) . . brain snap.
And again against the Saffies this year. I can’t help but feel that when put under the blow torch he’s get burnt.
I agree about Byron Kellehar, he’s past it and we should just use Brendon Leonard - he seems to be able to make things happen. And we should have taken Weepu too.
Yeah, I got a bit carried away! So pumped for this tournament…I don’t know I’ll cope with another defeat. I want to win this and win with style, hammering the Aussies once and for all, then destroying the Frogs on their turf. Life would be so sweet after that!
Totally agree - we are way overdue for a Wrld Cup to grace the cabinet. Sure there are plenty of reasons why the All Blacks may not lose and there are also a hell of a lot of reasons why we should kick some global butt. But we won’t know for sure which the papers will be proclaiming until after the final whistle of this tournament.
Mortlock continues to be a worry and I am sure several of the All Blacks have small voo-doo effigies of the guy. But he is held together by cellotape these days and without him the Aussies would be lucky to get past pool play!
Still, my personal hope is to see Kelleher standing over a vanquished Gregan and taunt him with “No more years!”
[...] competition is doing them no favours. I posted earlier about these teams being of the reasons the All Blacks will lose this tournament. Going into a semi final, we will hardly be match hardened by Portugal and [...]
Maybe New Zealand lost because they were not good enough to win and can lose again. The unbeatable tag doesn’t exist anymore.
Wyane . . i agree. we tend to hype things up a lot in NZ, the rugby public has rather high expectations . . .the nations sometimes (well always) thinks we will win everything. Sigh, when will we learn.
And if we win these four reasons will be heralded as to the key behind the ABs success. It always works this way. For example, if we win, the lazy days spent relaxing in the south of France will be seen as genius and a key part of our success, if we lose it will, however, be seen as a grand mistake and misjudgment. I think everyone has to put it all into perspective. The All Blacks and the coaching staff have revolutionised rugby, if they win, well, we know that they have thrown everything at it. If they lose I see no reason why the NZ public should critic them. 15 men will stand out on that field and play their heart out, thats all we can ask for and, in the end, thats how we should view them - as a team who sacrificed conventionality in a last ditch attempt to bring home the rugby world cup. Have some respect.
If they lose they will be criticised whether they deserve it or not . . that’s the nature of rugby in NZ.
I don’t see how the coaching staff have revolutinised rugby - I’d like to hear your thoughts on this. I think they are the best we’ve had since John Hart, but no revolution has taken place.
I realise that that is the nature of rugby in NZ, its just unfortunate. If only we could treat it a little more like we treated the America’s Cup Team, they lost but their efforts were still recognised, although they were the underdogs.
Maybe revolutionised is not the correct word but just the way they have managed to breed not just 15 players of world class quality but an entire squad, the speed at which they can play the game, the fitness. Its a whole new approach. How many other teams have forwards who can run like ours can, backs with the strength of ours, how many other teams have the whole package, times two. The coaches have, in my opinion, have brought the game into a new era, rotation, the much criticised ‘cotton wool club’ - such tactics are new and are bringing a new dimension to the game. I bet every single other coaching team would die for the depth of the All Blacks and it will be something they will strive for as they now see that it is in fact possible. It will be interesting to see, in the following, years how many other teams will employ such tactics but I bet that those will the resources will try and some will succeed. So therefore the All Black’s coaching staff have revolutionised the game, they have done something new, changed it, been successful at it, they are leading the way.
[...] linked to my ‘Why the All Blacks will lose the Rugby World Cup‘ post I wrote back on September 4, well before the start of the [...]
I cannot agree with you about Byron Kelleher. He was one of those who did all their possible for the thing to happen during the match against France. If you don’t remember the match, watch it again. French team knew he was a central element in NZ team and they charged him down.
When NZ was defeated in 1999 and in 2003 he wasn’t the only one to blame and on this point don’t forget the staff. At that time he hadn’t the confidence of his managers and now he has it and he plays a good and aggressive rugby.
A question still remain: why when a team wins everybody is praised to the skies and when a team defeats it’ s due only to some reasons and some players?
They were the most well-prepared team in the world but sometimes it’s not enough: when players and their staff understand that we cannot seperate the body from the mind they will be much more efficient.
Hi Houda
I’ve no doubt that Byron Kelleher did all he could - it’s just that with all his mental baggage (1999 and 2003) it was never going to be good enough.
If the French charged him down, then why did he allow that?
As to your question about teams being praised to the sky, well I cant agree more. Especially in NZ. We build the All Blacks up, we hype them to outrageous levels and then we cut them to shreds when they lose. I believe the sporting media take much of the blame here.
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